Brett's official NFL Picks for Week 14 of the NFL Season. Note, I will not post lines for the games.
Indianapolis at Tennessee (Thursday)
There is no chance Indianapolis loses this game. Peyton Manning has been awful these past weeks, throwing 11 interceptions in three weeks. Against a team he owns that is in the worst tailspin of any team, courtesy of the Curse of “Great Wideouts” (Randy Moss) this game is no-doubter still. Peyton will push, pull, and toss his teammates to a respectable year, though not the playoffs. Take the Colts.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Steelers exerted their “dominance” (if you call “dominance” an unconvincing, squeaker of a game which was so poorly played by both teams I wondered whether they were attempting to tie each other) over the AFC North last week by beating the Ravens, getting the inside line to the number two seed in the AFC playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger has been in too many big games to miss out on beating down the Bengals, who have fallen apart by the Curse of the “Great Wideouts.” (Terrell Owens.)
I hear people saying all the time “You can’t blame TO for the Bengals falling apart, he’s getting his, he’s making plays, he’s showing how great he is.” Last year, the Bengals won the AFC North convincingly, going 6-0 in the division, based on a power running game created by a resurgent Cedric Benson, with Carson Palmer-to-Chad Ochocinco on the play-fake. This season, Cincinnati turned to a spread offense to accommodate the dueling divas of TO and Ochocinco. Had TO not arrived in “Cincinnasty” (as my brother-in-law calls it,) they would still be a power running team, crushing defenses with Benson who had to protect the threat of the deep ball to Ochocinco. “Great Wideouts” destroy teams, not help them.
Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Michael Crabtree, Keyshawn Johnson, the list continues.
Oakland at Jacksonville
This game boils down to “mediocre-to-bad team who by the graces of God have split their first twelve even though we have no reliable offense, but still has playoff aspirations travelling cross country to play the “upstart team nobody saw coming who have a leg up on the actual class of division and we are desperate because we play them next week and we don’t care if we aren’t good enough.” Take Jacksonville.
If Oakland does win this one, you will know they are legit, and with the sweep of San Diego and the inevitable Kansas City collapse, they will sneak into the playoffs.
Cleveland at Buffalo
Cleveland, like Oakland are playing way-above their talent level. I have lost count the amount of times they have changed their quarterback. I did like Colt McCoy, I don’t understand the logic of not keeping him in. He debuted against Pittsburgh, a trial by fire in the biggest rivalry game you have. He played tough in wins against New Orleans and New England, two Super Bowl front-runners, and almost beat the Paper Airplanes (the Jets.) The Bills will play them tough, mainly because the Bills are the better team. They may be 2-10, but they haven’t stopped competing. They have suffered tough loss after tough loss, and they will continue to do so, as the Browns attempt the patented Eric Mangini “Almost Good Enough Push” and win a close game.
New England at Chicago
The Patriots will win Super Bowl XLV. Chicago would be very lucky to get to Super Bowl XLV. If the Bears win this game, they will be the best team in the NFC and will be my NFC Champion pick. Jay Cutler has found his rhythm after a slow start. I love his temper and his fire, it makes him great. It also means when he is bad, he is really bad and things only get worse. This Patriots team has the ability to bring out the absolute worst in a team they play (see: Jets, New York) simply by showing up on the field, have Tom Brady take his helmet off and tussle his long, famous locks (why are we still calling it the “Justin Bieber?” When they win the Super Bowl this season, we will start referring to it as “The Tom Bundchen.” The Bears aren’t legit, Cutler will have a meltdown, and they have a tough remaining schedule (at Minnesota, v. Paper Planes, at Green Bay) and might lose out. Take the Pats and Mrs. Bundchen.
Green Bay at Detroit
Universal Truth #1: Detroit does three and only three things well: cars, music, and hockey. They do them so well they have little time for doing anything else at competent levels, football especially.
Green Bay is a very interesting team. Their four losses: at Chicago against a tough rival at home, Washington and Miami in overtime losses while they were in the midst of decimating injuries, and at Atlanta, whom they almost beat. If they get another shot against the Falcons in the Divisional Playoffs, they will have a good shot. They are a tough, confident team who will be Super Bowl contenders next season for sure (so long as there is a season in 2011.) They will win this game, and they will win at least one game in the playoffs this season.
Atlanta at Carolina
John Fox is already packing his belongings in Charlotte. Denver makes sense, though Pat Bowlen would rather have Jon Gruden, but he’s a shoo-in at Dallas, unless Bill Cowher beats him to Jerry Jones’s checkbook. Jerry Jones needs a Super Bowl, badly. Don’t be surprised, when he invariably makes another wrong choice in the hiring and firing of head football coaches (see: Campo, Dave; Phillips, Wade; Landry, Tom) hiring Jim Fassel or Bill Belichick, if we see the Cowboys following their Metroplex brothers the Rangers on the auction block.
Back on topic, I’m sure the Panthers will attempt to win the game, as they always do. Once again, they won’t actually win the game, mostly because the coaching staff and the players don’t actually care anymore about this team. They all know a new regime is coming in Charlotte in 2011 and even Steve Smith won’t be safe.
The Falcons will easily win because they are exceptionally better, though it will be closer than people may think. The Falcons to the Super Bowl talk will begin; they will make a great upstart story to contrast the Patriots’ run to title number four as both have home-field advantage up until Dallas in February. And they will get there. Believe it; the Falcons are Saints 2.0.
Tampa Bay at Washington
Washington is terrible. I hate that fact, because I love Donovan McNabb. I am a child of upstate New York, which means I love Syracuse football. Donovan played at Syracuse while I was in high school; I knew this guy was special; I hated those who were called “Eagle Fan” because they booed him on Draft Day 1999. If he had been more-accepted, he would have won more, I swear. He was the darling of Syracuse and of the entire region, the mass-support he received made him play with a fire which has long-since extinguished after years of tough, cold unforgiving, vitriol-filled Philadelphia winters. Had he gone to Buffalo, hypothetically, he would have replaced the endless, nameless string of hacks and taken over a team which would make the playoffs during the era and led them to AFC East prominence a year or two before some unheralded pretty-boy came out of nowhere to take over the NFL for a generation in New England. Imagine the twice annual McNabb and the M-Gun versus Belichick, Brady and the Patriots; it would have been bigger than Brady-Manning.
Tampa Bay is a paper tiger, this year anyway. They haven’t beaten anybody with a winning record, but they are undefeated against the dregs. We shall create an award here; it shall be called “The Best Worst Team of the Year.” The Soccer Bowl, as it shall be called, which won’t actually happen unfortunately, looks to be lining up as a Raider-Buccaneers affair. The winner of the “Best Worst Team of the Year” will be decided by votes from the readers. More awards coming all the time, so stay tuned! Take the Bucs, they are the class of the second-class.
New York Giants at Minnesota
Under Interim Head Coach Leslie Frazier, the Vikings are undefeated. If Brett Favre is healthy, he will play, they say. If he plays, he will lead his new head coach to another victory on what will be called the “Final, No really! Brett Favre Retirement Parade.”
If Tarvaris Jackson starts at quarterback instead of Favre, he will lead the team to victory by not making mistakes, playing within the system, and deferring to the running game (just like the former coach actually wanted to do.) Jackson will be looking for a job next year, there’s no chance he’s going to stay in Minnesota, not with another new coach who’ll want to change the system on the fly and bring in another old mare to compete with. He should see if San Francisco will do the “Oakland” and find another one-year quarterback Band-Aid (see: Campbell, Jason.)
I’m a Jets fan, but being from New York, I have always rooted for the Giants at some level. I like Eli Manning and their entire roster, with few exceptions. Most of this team is tough, and have a big, shiny ring for being the Super Bowl equivalent to a one-album wonder (see: Mister, Mister.) They did it great once, out of the blue, despite of the fact they weren’t sexy like Duran Duran, they weren’t talented like Huey Lewis, and the fact the album wasn’t really all that good, just vaguely popular, like Cyndi Lauper. The Giants had a good run, and to expect them to do so once again, at that level is unrealistic. They cut a decent second album (a 2008 playoff run,) a clunker of a concept album that started great, but fell apart at the end (2009 catastrophe.) Thus far, 2010 has the makings of a come-back album the likes of Aerosmith’s “Permanent Vacation.” They will lose this week, then have to host Vick and the Eagles, go to Green Bay and then go to Washington. They might end up 9-7 and miss the playoffs. If they hold it together to get into the playoffs, who knows? They might win the Grammy. Not this week, however.
Miami at New York Jets
I am a Jets fan, and I saw this coming, just as I correctly predicted the path and course of last season. I knew, in 2009 they would have a surprising year, and they did. I knew they would make the playoffs, even after they were 4-6. I knew they would peak, and realize their potential, I believed in the whole Rex Ryan persona. They got some help, had some luck, and rode the wave to the AFC Championship Game. And now they had to not only repeat the feat, which had a lot to do with luck, but better it by winning two more games, and hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
They started 2010 by not showing up to Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens, whose offense hadn’t made the trip either. The funny thing is, the Jets almost accidentally won the game. They were down 10-9 and were driving for a last minute score. Kicker Nick Folk had been money all game, they really didn’t need that many yards to win the game. Instead, the Sanchize choked it with a pass destined to be a yard short the entire time: far and away from the way the receiver should be running. He does it all the time; Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Jerricho Cothery are always running out of their way to catch errant Sanchize passes. The Curse of USC seems to be lurking...
They again didn’t show up two months later on Halloween when the Packers came to town, in the midst of their intensive-care hospital stay, and again almost won. The score was only 6-0 when they choked away chance after chance to score. The Packers scored their final field goal after the final outcome was already determined. If the Sanchize hadn’t played like he secretly wanted the Packers to win, he could have accidentally walked over the goal line with the ball.
Again, last Monday, just over a month later, they again didn’t show up, like punks. When the big talkers talk, they are expected to back up the talk. But three times (against their three hardest opponents of the season,) they absolutely folded like they had a pair of twos. I think they genuinely believe they are the best team in football; they are going to win the Super Bowl. Sadly, there is a big problem in their midst. They aren’t actually that good. All they do is make mistakes. They are sloppy. They are their head coach. Fire Rex Ryan!
If the Jets show up this week against a Dolphin team who has been great on the road (5-1) and has nothing to lose and have proven they will pull out all the stops to achieve victory, and they beat them, they are quite capable of going on a run against the toughest stretch of schedule (at Pittsburgh, at Chicago, versus Buffalo.) If they show up and if they win, the Jets will probably win twelve games. If the Jets don’t show up this week and play with little heart, they will lose the rest of their games, the Sanchize will be a bust guaranteed and Rex will be gone in a year. The Jets haven’t ever won playoff games in back-to-back years; they won’t this year, they will go 9-7.
I’m giving them one more chance; take the Jets.
Kansas City at San Diego
Matt Cassel won’t play for the Chiefs, apparently. Brodie Croyle, the guy who actually made Alabama relevant before Nick Saban showed up last decade, is expected to start. I remember seeing Croyle on the cover of “Sports Illustrated” in 2005. Maybe he still has some magic; maybe he can hand it off to Thomas Jones and then throw a frozen rope to Bowe on the slant. Maybe he can. Cassel can, and Cassel isn’t a great quarterback. If Cassel were actually any good, he would have taken the defending AFC Champion Patriots who were coming off an undefeated regular season and taken them over like Brady did seven years previous. If Cassel were actually a good quarterback, he would have made the playoffs during the Favre/Wildcat Dolphin year of the AFC East, both of which only existed because Mr. Bundchen was in a boot.
San Diego will win this game, not because Cassel is out, but because they are the better team and they know they better start playing like it before it is too late. They have zero room for error, and they have experience winning like that (see: 2008.) If they win this game, they will have huge momentum playing next against the 49ers who absolutely blow, at putrid Cincinnati and then at already rebuilding Denver. They need this victory bad, because it is their last toss-up game. They will go at least 9-7, but they will have lost both to the Chiefs and the Raiders, and that would more than likely not be enough to squeak in as the four seed.
Denver at Arizona
The petulant teenager who becomes assistant manager over middle aged employees at Toys R Us has been fired for getting a massive ego trip (aka Josh McDaniels.) In his place, owner Pat Bowlen picked the running backs coach/shelf-stocker. What’s his name? I don’t know, and I don’t care. I don’t have internet at my house, and I’m not going to the library to find out and my BlackBerry is on the fritz and it’s too big of a pain in the ass to use in this condition to find out the name of this guy who will coach four irrelevant games called by Rich Gannon and the sleepy voice he drags kicking and screaming to the stadium on Sunday. Expect Pat Bowlen to hire the biggest name he can find, not necessarily the best coach available. Pat, meet John. John, meet Pat.
Arizona? They have a football team. I remember that religious dude with the hot wife and the drab, comatose voice used to have a pickup game going with some fast guys, one of which is in Baltimore, one of which has disappeared off the face of the Earth. They were good, they should’ve inspired a “White Men Can’t Jump” sequel, “White Men Can’t Throw.” Kurt Warner could have been played by Kiefer Sutherland, Anquan Boldin could have been played by that tall guy from Gladiator whose name I can’t spell, and Larry Fitzgerald could have been played by Predator.
Take the Broncos for no reason for all, because it certainly doesn’t matter.
Seattle at San Francisco
Pete Carroll and Matt Hasselbeck are one win away from destroying their chief geographic rival, the 49ers. If the Niners choke, which they will, unless they somehow win this game and then have Rev. Mike Singletary deliver a passionate sermon where he unleashes God’s will for a 7-9 team to win a division title in order to justify expanding the playoffs by one team in each league because: Universal Truth #2: God loves the Playoffs in all sports! Yeah, that might happen…
The Seahawks have a great path to the divisional playoffs: at Atlanta who might be caught looking ahead to their week 16 game against New Orleans, at a Bucs team who will be desperate and playing with reckless abandon, which will get them close, but not quite, and then home against the Rams for the division title. 9-7 sounds quite plausible. Fear the Surfer! Go ‘Hawks! In a walkover…
St. Louis at New Orleans
Sam Bradford is going to walk in with all sorts of confidence into the Superdome on Sunday afternoon, thinking his Rams have a shot to knock off defending champion New Orleans. He is going to be walking out with his head hanging low after learning a great lesson courtesy of the guy with the splotch on his face: don’t get ahead of yourself. You are 6-6 and contending, but that doesn’t mean your team is great, that doesn’t mean you are great. You still have a lot to learn, and you will learn it and you will be better. It will be as if Drew Brees will be telling Bradford his life’s story as he nails Meacheam and Colston, and Bush with perfect passes again and again against a vulnerable Rams defense. The Rams will go 8-8 or 7-9 at the worst and will just miss out on the playoffs. But if Bradford learns his lesson this year, instead of becoming the least-talented superstar in NFL history as a rookie (see: the Sanchize,) he will make the playoffs in a wide-open 2011 NFC West (if there is a season next year.) The Saints will make the playoffs, and might catch Saints 2.0 (the Falcons.)
Philadelphia at Dallas
Vick is legit, he’s the man. He is the new Randall Cunningham. Kevin Kolb is Jim McMahon and Rodney Peete rolled up into one. Vick will get this team to the playoffs, if they hold onto the division; they will win a game, at least. It is difficult for some Eagles fans I know to cheer for the man Vick, but you can’t argue with his results. They are playoff bound, if he can stay healthy. He will, they’ll come up big, and beat Big D.
Jason Garrett has already proven himself. He isn’t going to make the playoffs, and he may only finish .500 for the year, but he brought professionalism and structure to a team which was sorely lacking. He will keep the job if Gruden and Cowher turn Jerry Jones down. He deserves a shot, like the one he never got playing behind Aikman. They won’t win this one though.
Baltimore at Houston (Monday)
Houston will once again be playing with desperation and drama attempting to once again make their father/owner Bob McNair angry with them for flunking out again, only for attention. Gary Kubiak tutor/head coach will take the blame, and get the ax. They’ve already come up short against the Colts on a Monday night, and they will do it once again here.
Baltimore is good, really good. Joe Flacco is a really good quarterback. In the post-Manning-Brady Generation Quarterback Rankings, I would put him at number one. (Number Two: Matt Ryan; Number Three: Aaron Rodgers; Four (tied): Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford. Last: Matt “The Glass House” Stafford; Second-to-last: the Sanchize.
Playoff prediction:
Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars, Chargers division champions; Ravens and Jets wild-cards in the AFC.
Eagles, Packers, Saints, Seahawks division champions; Falcons and Giants wild-cards in the NFC.
Super Bowl prediction: Patriots versus Falcons
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