Because of the inclusion of the Seattle Seahawks into the playoffs, and the entire run-up of the conclusion of the terrible season in the NFC West, many pundits have been clamoring over a shake-up of the playoffs. Concerned, but not altogether surprised at the vitriol on both sides, BWB stayed out of the fight, hoping they do not change a thing for fear of breaking a system that doesn't need fixing.
While many people quote playoff statistics since 1990, when the NFL went to a twelve-team playoff format (six in each conference), BWB complied playoff statistics from the real beginning of our current playoff format, since realignment in 2002. From 2002-2009 (so not including this season) there have been eight instances where a wild card team with a better record traveled to a division champion with a worse record. The home team, the team with the worse record was 5-3, winning three in a row (2008: 8-8 Chargers beat the 12-4 Colts and 9-7 Cardinals beat the 11-5 Falcons and 2009: 10-6 Cardinals beat the 11-5 Packers.) The 2008 Cardinals also hosted the NFC Championship Game that year against the 9-6-1 and sixth-seeded Eagles, which they won.
Eight times in eight seasons. A better team had to go on the road on average once per year in the wild card round! This season, three wild card teams had better records than their at home opponents, two of them winning. Overall, since 2002, teams hosting a team with a better regular-season record are 7-5. If those games were held on the field of the team with the better record, would the '08 Chargers have beaten Peyton Manning? Would the miracle Cardinals of the same year have been stopped by Matty Ice in Atlanta? Would the Seahawks have won on Saturday in the Superdome?
BWB likes the divisional format, and would suggest keeping it for the time being until a new realignment (either two divisions of eight teams in each conference or single non-divisional conference format where all teams are ranked 1-16, similar to the 1982 strike year) could be implemented. Simply by awarding playoff berths in the same fashion and then seeding the contestants 1-6 would be much more palatable. Consider if this past weekend's wild card round looked like this:
6. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) at 3. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
5. Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at 4. New York Jets (11-5)
6. Seattle Seahawks (7-9) at 3. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at 4. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Notice anything weird? If you re-seeded before the playoffs this year, the Patriots, Steelers, Falcons and Bears would get the byes (Bears get a by tiebreaker over the Saints for officially winning a division), all the matchups would be the same, but the locations would have changed.
The Packers would get the home game, even though the Eagles were division champions because they beat them head-to-head week one, which is the primary tiebreaker for all seedings. The better teams who actually won this weekend, the Ravens, Jets, and Packers would more than likely would have won at home than on the road. If the Saints had the Seahawks at home, do you really think Seattle would have blown past them?
That's it NFL! Do what BWB says and all your problems will be solved! I promise.
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