The President has officially begun his re-election campaign, surprising almost nobody by posting it online. Personally, I wouldn’t have been surprised if had went aboard the USS Ronald Reagan and unfurled a banner stating, “No really, I promise we still can!”
Will the President win in 2012? Honestly, I think so. As with 2008, his biggest competition will not come from his Republican challenger, but from within the party, namely Secretary of State (for now) Hillary Clinton. While it is certainly probable Secretary Clinton can and will beat him, and while it is also possible a rightist candidate like Sarah Palin or Donald Trump can mount a strong challenge, if I were to place a bet, I’d still put my money on Obama.
That being said, I am the biggest Obama basher in the world, and would love nothing better than to recycle him in the same bin as his ‘green’ light bulbs. Here are my top ten contenders, in reverse order, to knock off Mr. President:
Only if everyone else inexplicably reveals they too were born in Kenya
10. Newt Gingrich
Current occupation: Republican Hack
Victory Chance in Primaries: Less than 1%
Poor Newt believes in his heart of hearts that his corrupt Republican regime is coming back full-swing, with the emergence of the Tea Party on the right wing. What the former Speaker doesn’t realize is that the Tea Party movement will either wilt like a flower dying in the cloudy desert of Washington or will split off and create a real-life conservative political party. Either way, the American public is never going to vote for a retread.
9. Ron Paul
Current occupation: Republican Congressman from Texas
Victory Chance: 1%
Mr. Paul is the true voice of conservative libertarianism, and is a big hit with many young college students. Believing idealism is the most important aspect of politics, Mr. Paul has outraised all other Republicans in campaign contributions, though that won’t matter to the average American, or even Republican, voter. To most Americans, he is the small, elvish-looking man whose hippy, pot-smoking followers are a mere sideshow. Mr. Paul would be better off throwing his support behind a younger, more idealistic, yet more palatable presidential choice.
8. Michele Bachman,
Current occupation: Republican Congressman from Minnesota
Victory Chance: 4%
The only way this Tea Party favorite will win her nomination is if Sarah Palin decides not to run. The sleepy American electorate will be shocked and awoken my her fiery anti-Obama rhetoric and her strong (well, stronger than the current President’s pre-President) credentials. She represents perfectly the soccer mom, middle-American mentality the same way Obama represented the under-represented minority. And if you don’t think the symbolic gesture of political image doesn’t matter, you clearly weren’t paying attention in 2008.
Only if We the People don’t pay attention to their track records and history…you know, just like last time
7. Insert Republican Governor Here
Current occupation: Governors of varied states in the Union
Victory Chance: 8%
There’s been talk of Marco Rubio (Florida), Chris Christie (New Jersey), Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota), and Bobby Jindal (Louisiana) running for President in 2012. Good luck to all of you. If you could all take your titles and beings, combine them like Voltron into one massive governor with Christie’s ideas, Jindal’s assertive strength, Pawlenty’s blue-dog appeal, and Rubio’s look and heritage and create one super candidate, they would win hands-down. Otherwise, by splitting the vote so many ways, it will create an unwinnable scenario for each in the primary season.
6. Dark horse ex-military guy Republican or Democrat here
Current occupation: Appearing on a cable news channel as an analyst, bemoaning the President’s poor military decisions at bars
Victory Chance: 10%
America wants strong, confident candidates for President, which was why we voted for Obama in the first place. We believed in him as that strong leader, much to our chagrin. If a competent former general (Wesley Clark, feel free to not show up) were to throw their hat in the ring, Colin Powell or Stanley McCrystal come to mind, they could stand up as a balance to the ineffectual President. Chances are it won’t happen, but I’d still like to see it.
The Contenders
5. Mitt Romney
Current Occupation: Male Supermodel
Victory Chance: 17%
Let’s face it, the man looks the part. In my lifetime, we went from the wizened old Grandfather (Reagan) who looked as if he and his wife would offer you fresh-baked goods when you entered the White House, next to the cantankerous old Grandfather (Bush) who would not-so-politely ask you not to touch the knickknacks and to stay off the carpet, then to the party-boy cousin (Clinton) who’s White House you were frightened to touch anything in, to his frat-boy younger brother (W) turned Christian reformer who shouldn’t have been trusted with the keys to the car, let alone the nation, to the bungling next door neighbor (Obama) who could sell you a car you already owned. We the People need someone who seems like they know what they are doing, not someone who actually knows what they are doing. Romney is every bit the charlatan Obama is, pretends he is as pious as W did, probably parties as hard, if not harder, than Clinton, but also looks responsible like the aloof Bush and the vacant Reagan. What’s not to like about his candidacy?
4. Sarah Palin
Current occupation: Female Supermodel
Victory Chance: 19%
Copy and paste Romney’s credentials over hers and the only thing you’d have to add are nicer legs, women’s innate jealousy which they can’t quite comprehend, and an actual tenacity and desire to fix America. If women weren’t so intimidated by her, she would have carried the decrepit McCain to victory. Oh yeah, also…she doesn’t seem quite all there in the head.
3. Donald Trump
Current occupation: Hair Model, television personality, billionaire real estate mogul
Victory Chance: 20%
Simply with his massive money and his built-in platform in our minds by being one of the most famous men in the entire world. With the government’s finances in the tank, America is desperate for a financial wizard. But hasn’t Mr. Trump gone bankrupt? I guess that makes him a great candidate, considering our nation is spending 8 times the revenue it takes in.
2. Hillary Clinton
Current occupation: Secretary of State
Victory Chance in the Democratic Primary: 49%
She was the sensible Democratic pick in 2008, and should she run, her base would be reinvigorated and possibly grow exponentially. She would be a force against the weakened President (a la Reagan against Ford in 1976). I don’t think she’d win, and honestly I don’t think she would be much better than Obama if she did win, but I certainly hope she will try. As devious and Machiavellian as she is, I’d take her over the Communist any day.
1. Rand Paul
Current Occupation: Republican Senator from Kentucky
Victory Chance in the Republican Primary : 21%
I know, I know, he hasn’t officially run for President. I also know he probably wouldn’t run if his father was also running for President, which is why I hope Ron Paul steps aside, shifting all of his supporters to his father. Rand Paul has already faced a contentious election in a swing state against a moderate Democrat. He’s the Republican Obama, has been quite critical of the federal spending, and he doesn’t desire compromise with those destroying this nation. He wants to trim the government like a bonsai tree and is even a bud smoker (see Buddha, Aqua). He is against our foreign interventionist policy, which is reason enough to garner my vote, should he run.
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